Shayan Ahmad Khan
We are witnessing an unusually high-scoring IPL season. In fact, the last two seasons of the IPL have seen a boost in scoring rates. Batters are showing more intent, especially because of the Impact Player rule. It essentially means that teams are now batting deeper than ever. This combination of deep batting line-ups and spread out bowling resources will likely not hold during the Super 8s stage of the upcoming T20 World Cup, which is the critical stage for a team like India to target if they want to win that elusive global trophy that’s been missing since 2013.
Even though T20 cricket is in the middle of a paradigm shift where ‘hitting’ is becoming more essential than ‘batting’, it is still largely dictated by the playing conditions. If they qualify, India will play their Super 8 matches at the following venues – Barbados, Antigua, St Lucia.
The two semi-finals will be held in Guyana and Trinidad, while the final will be played in Barbados. Hence, it is important for India to factor in the conditions while picking their team. We have some data on the scoring rates at these venues in the CPL since the start of 2020. The 2021 edition of the tournament was played in Warner Park, Basseterre, St Kitts. No CPL games were played in Antigua, and none of the nine T20Is played at the venue in this time period were between Test playing nations.
Here’s a look at the most likely contenders for India’s batting line-up, keeping in mind performances during IPL 2023 and 2024. The stats are updated till the Kolkata Knight Riders v Sunrisers Hyderabad match on April 26.
Top-order batters: Rohit Sharma, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli, Shubman Gill
Let’s start with the captain, Rohit Sharma. He played the role of a powerplay aggressor in the ODI World Cup last year. So far, his numbers this season show that he’s translated that ODI spirit into the T20 game – 303 runs at 43/163. He goes at 58/168 against pace and 26/149 against spin.
Rohit’s powerplay numbers across the last two seasons are 30/147, and though that does not seem extraordinary, in IPL 2024 those numbers have jumped to 62 and 175.5. Legspin seems to be his kryptonite. While the sample size of two seasons is small, even Rohit’s overall record against legspin is not flattering. The good thing with Rohit is that he seems to have binned the anchor mindset, so he does not really slow down in any phase. He averages only 10 at a run a ball in overs 12-16, which is fine as long as he’s able to give quick starts and the team has sufficient batting firepower to come.
Rohit Sharma the skipper has a shot at winning an ICC title, while Rohit Sharma the batter has the opportunity to have a defining T20 World Cup season.
Yashasvi Jaiswal has had an elite run in T20 cricket since the start of 2023. He did not have the best of starts to this season, but he announced his return to form with a hundred against Mumbai Indians. He now has 225 runs at 32/157. All seven of his dismissals this season have been against pace, while he has scored 59 off 32 vs spin without being dismissed.
Jaiswal has consistently been able to give quick starts at the top of the order in the last two seasons. It is not normal for a left-hand opener to score at 190 against offspin without getting out to it. Even beyond the powerplay, he is able to maintain a brisk scoring rate in the middle overs without being dismissed too often. The slowest he scores against a bowling type is legspin – he strikes at 138 but hasn’t got out to it. In fact, he is yet to be dismissed by a spinner in IPL 2023 and 2024, while striking at 159.
The quality of the attacks Jaiswal will face at the World Cup in the Super 8s phase is likely to be a notch above what he’s gone up against in the IPL and bilateral T20Is. So, the real threat for Jaiswal will be to see whether he goes into a shell if he gets a couple of low scores early in the T20 WC.
After 2016, this the quickest Virat Kohli has batted in an IPL season (145.76 SR), while also being on top of the run-getters list. But in a season where 200+ totals have been the norm, has it really been enough? He is still scoring quick – 162 SR – against the faster bowlers but he has not been able to break free against the spinners, going at just 124.
Since the last T20 World Cup, Kohli has definitely upped his intent in the powerplay. However, the biggest issue with him is still how he goes about his innings in the middle overs, especially between overs 7-11. He has not been able to attack any form of spin, but the best option against him is definitely left-arm finger spin. He basically goes at a run a ball, without getting out to it.
We know that he is still one of the best players of high-quality pace, and his experience in pressure situations is well established. If he can couple his consistency with increased intent, it would bode well for India. However, there is a stark difference in his strike rate against pace and spin even in the powerplay, and he has a tendency of batting within himself and knocking it around in the first innings, especially if he does not trust the batting to follow.
Shubman Gill scored the second-most runs ever in an IPL season (890) last year. He has followed that up with a respectable season so far, scoring 304 runs @38/146. But it brings us back to whether that strike rate is enough this year. Gill has played four matches at Ahmedabad – a ground that has seen relatively lower scores compared to the rest of the tournament. His record reads 42/151 against pace and 34/142 against spin this year.
Gill is actually at his best in the middle-overs of a T20 innings. His powerplay record is a bit weird – he averages 63 while striking at 145 in the IPL since 2023, but only 15 at 122 in T20Is. Even in the IPL, he struck at 151 last year while he is at 133 this year. Overall, he is at 35/139 in the first six overs in all T20s since the last T20 World Cup – so it’s fair to say that even though he is an opener, he is a better player when the field restrictions are over.
The thing with Gill is that even though you could argue he has been one of the best batters in the IPL since the last season, he is still an anchor-type batter.
Middle-order batters: Suryakumar Yadav, Rishabh Pant, Sanju Samson, Shivam Dube
Suryakumar Yadav is still the best T20 batter in India, and right up there with the likes of Heinrich Klaasen overall. In this IPL, he has scored 140 runs in five innings at 28/167. He’s had three single-digit scores and two half-centuries, one of which was a 19-ball 52 vs RCB.
Suryakumar is at his best in the middle overs, though if he is well set he is extremely destructive at the death too. He does not spare any kind of pace, going at over 12 runs per over against it. The only two bowling types against which he strikes at less than 140 are left-arm spin and left-arm wrist spin, albeit over a small sample size. Against legspin, he has scored 170 off 98 balls without being dismissed.
There is a perception in some quarters that he hasn’t performed well in ‘big’ games in the last two T20 World Cups. However, that is easily refuted. He made a terrific 68 off 40 against South Africa in 2022. More than that, the T20 format is volatile by design. If batters around him aren’t able to score quickly enough, Suryakumar has to take greater risks to up the rate, and that increases chances of a failure.
Cricket fans across the globe were excited to see Rishabh Pant back on the field in this year’s IPL. The Delhi Capitals skipper has definitely lived up to the expectations and performed very well in the tournament, scoring 342 runs @49/161 in nine innings. Against pace, he is going at 191, but it is only 118 against spin.
Pant has done very well in the final eight overs of the innings this year. But he has been particularly good at the death, scoring at 260. He has been incredible against right-arm pace. However, the biggest issue with him has been that he does not exactly start quickly, and he has had his issues against spin. He has played a couple of knocks where he just got stuck and could not create an impact.
What if he plays like an anchor? That is not the version of him that the team needs at the moment. Somehow, his T20I record has been a pale shadow of what he has achieved in the IPL.
Speaking of wicketkeepers, Sanju Samson has had yet another high-impact season. He has scored 314 runs at 63/152, and played a couple of excellent knocks when the openers did not score a lot of runs. He has a 41/159 record against pace and is undismissed by spin, despite striking at 141.6.
Samson has consistently been a top performer in the middle overs in the IPL. He is exceptional against legspin, scoring 200 runs at a strike rate of 177 and being dismissed just once. He does not score as quickly against both kinds of finger spin, but it is over a small sample size.
Although Samson has not gotten a consistent run for India in T20Is, he scored only 78 runs in seven innings for India in the format after the 2022 T20 World Cup.
Shivam Dube has built an aura around himself as a spin smasher. Teams are scared to bowl spin at him, but he has also impressed against pace this season. He has scored 311 runs at 52/170, and only 66 of those have come against spinners at a strike rate of 174. Against pace, he averages 49 at a strike rate of 169.
He is at his destructive best in overs 12-16. He maintains a normal scoring rate in 7-11, but starts smashing it everywhere after that. He is an elite hitter of legspin, scoring at a strike rate of almost 200 while maintaining a high average. He does average less than 20 against left-arm seam, but it could also be a function of him taking more risks against it.
Stephen Fleming mentioned in a press conference that Dube was bowling in the nets, and working on the secondary skill to be an even more viable option for the Indian team. But the right-arm medium pacer has not bowled a single ball in the last two seasons. For India, he has bowled 15 overs in eight games and returned figures of 3 for 144. The team management will then have to weigh his batting firepower against the risk of going with him as a sixth bowling option.
Finishers: Rinku Singh, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, Dinesh Karthik
Rinku Singh is one of the most important T20 players in India, simply because of the volatility of the role he performs. The left-hander was able to replicate his heroics in the IPL for India in the opportunities he got against Australia, South Africa and Afghanistan – scoring 281 runs in nine innings at 94/169. However, he has faced only 71 deliveries in seven innings in this year’s IPL, scoring 112 runs at an average of 22.4.
Rinku is what we call a ‘finishing anchor’ – a bit like David Miller for Gujarat and MS Dhoni for CSK in his prime years. He knocks the ball around in the middle overs before unleashing at the death. He is elite against right-arm pace, which is a big chunk of the bowling he would have to face. He scores at less than 120 in the middle overs, and less than a run a ball against offspin.
If Rinku has to come in early, it could be a double-edged sword. His calculated approach could work brilliantly in a chase, but not maximising the middle-overs while batting first could lead to an under-par total.
Things just do not seem to be going right for Hardik Pandya. He has scored 151 runs in eight innings, averaging 22 and striking at 142, and picked up four wickets at 10.94 runs per over. He has gone from being one of the best pace-hitters for MI, to an anchor for GT, to now a ‘neither here nor there’ batter in his return for MI.
Hardik’s SWOT profile is all over the place. Some of this is because he played an anchor role for Gujarat and does not have a fixed position for Mumbai. He is at his best against legspin, and he also does well against the offies. But weirdly, he is very slow against left-arm spin. He is a plus batter in overs 7-11, but that’s not really what the team will want from him.
It is not a secret that he struggles against hard lengths. What really makes a strong case for him to be included in the T20 squad is the fact that he is still the best pace-bowling all-rounder in the country. He offers balance like no other player, even though he is clearly not in form at the moment.
There have been question marks on Ravindra Jadeja’s strike rate this season. We know that he is excellent at not getting out. He has scored 157 runs at an average of 78.5 but a strike rate of just 132. If we look at the pace/spin splits, he goes at 143 against spin but only 129 against pace. That does not look ideal for someone who is supposed to bat at the death.
Even though Jadeja has been far from his best as a pace-hitter in the last few seasons, his best phase is still the death overs. Ideally, you don’t want him to face spin in the middle overs, because he will keep knocking it around without getting out.
Axar Patel has scored 123 runs at 25/132 in this year’s IPL, which includes a well-made 66 off 43 when he was promoted up the order at No. 3. He has a strike rate of 180 against spin, but only 103 against pace this season. Again, that is not the sort of profile you want from your finisher.
In the last two seasons, he has been a plus batter at the death, but he also likes facing offspin. He has also done well against left-arm wrist-spin (28 off 16 balls and out once) and left-arm spin (17 off 10 balls without being dismissed) over a relatively smaller sample. Unlike Jadeja, he does not have a great record against right-arm pace, but he has scored at a good clip against left-arm quicks (56 off 35 balls, out twice).
Axar can also float up the order if required.
Dinesh Karthik is performing superbly in the IPL in a T20 World Cup year, yet again. He has scored 262 runs at 52/195, and has been one of the best finishers in the competition. In the final four overs of the innings, he has the best strike rate (231.43) out of the four batters that have faced at least 50 balls.
Karthik scores at 215 against left-arm pace. Legspin is the only bowling type that he has struggled against in the last two seasons. His record against left-arm spin and offspin completely holds up, which is a plus. But if he is in the team, his job will be to score at over 2 runs a ball in the death overs.
If he makes the cut, it is likely to be his last opportunity to perform for India at the highest level. We know he has the skill to be an elite finisher, but will India want to go back to him with the likes of Pant and Samson in form? And if he does eventually play, teams know that they can target him by keeping a few overs of spin for the end of the innings.
Given all these options, a possible top seven for the T20 World Cup that covers enough bases and scenarios is: Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Suryakumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Rinku Singh, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja. Let’s try to make sense of how India could optimise their resources with this batting unit.
Rohit and Kohli should both look to maximise the powerplay. In fact, India might need two different versions of Kohli. Batting first, he needs to keep attacking after the powerplay, even if that means he is dismissed. Essentially, Kohli needs to maximise his strengths against pace, and needs to be paired with the right batters when facing spin. But in a run-chase, he will be the glue that holds the rest of the team together.
What about Jaiswal? He is undoubtedly a better option than Kohli to continue beyond the powerplay, but he does not give India the same quality and experience against the best pacers in the world. Plus, a well set Kohli can score at over two runs a ball at the death. Suryakumar and Samson could take on spin, while Rinku can create a difference at the end of the innings.
Along the same lines, India could also consider this: Rohit, Kohli, Suryakumar, Dube, Rinku, Karthik, Jadeja. This gives them stronger finishing and equally good spin-hitting, but the trade-off is no balance in terms of a sixth bowling option if Dube does not chip in with a couple of overs.
That is why it is difficult to bench someone like Hardik, because no other alternative will give the same balance on both sides of the ball. His return to form will be very important for India’s T20 World Cup chances.
The same goes for Jadeja, except he has a like-for-like replacement in Axar. Can India also think about accommodating both Axar and Jadeja to increase their batting depth? That could allow the top-order batters to bat more freely. The trade-off then is that the team will have a slightly more defensive bowling unit.
The other alternative could be to open with Jaiswal and use Pant at number five. In such a case, the team combination could be: Rohit, Jaiswal, Kohli, Suryakumar, Pant, Hardik, Jadeja.
Jaiswal will also keep going hard. We know how good he is against spin, so he can keep the runs coming through the middle.
Getting Kohli’s entry points right is key, because you do not want him to go at a run a ball against spin with better spin-hitters waiting in the dugout.
If India lose their first wicket at the end of the powerplay, it makes more sense to send in Suryakumar to take care of the spinners through the middle overs. If an early wicket falls, send Kohli to put the pressure back on the pacers in the powerplay, and keep Suryakumar back for the middle overs.
The fact that Suryakumar is versatile enough to bat at both three and four gives the Indian team some luxury.
Even though Pant has been very good this season, he takes a little time to settle before he starts taking the attack to the opposition. He has also been slow against spin, so an entry point around the 12th-13th over mark, after which more pace is likely to be bowled, could work well. An interesting trend with him this year has been that he has been taking down his positive matchups. That is actually very smart T20 batting.
We have not even talked about Shubman Gill in any of these combinations, and there will be enough space to accommodate only two wicket-keepers in the final squad.
One thing is for a certain. It is not easy to be a selector in India, with the number of viable candidates. And that is without even considering the X-factor young players like Abhishek Sharma and Riyan Parag, who might be considered too raw to put directly into a T20 World Cup. For the fans, the grass is always greener on the other side.
Stats from Cricmetric and Howstat as of 26th April. CPL data by Varun Alvakonda, via Cricsheet.
from Cricmetric and Howstat as of 26th April. CPL data by Varun Alvakonda, via Cricsheet.
