MATCH ANALYSIS IN BRIEF
| Date | Sunday, 19th November, 2023, at 14:00 (IST) and at 08:30 (UK) |
| Venue | India vs Australia will take place at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad |
| Weather | Conditions are expected to be extremely hot, with bright sunshine throughout the day and temperatures touching 33c come the start of the final. However, as the sun makes way for clear skies during the evening, expect temperatures to drop to around 26c. |
| TV & Streaming | Viewers in India: you can watch this match live on Star Sports channels or stream it via the Disney+ Hotstar app. |
| Viewers in Pakistan: you can watch this match live on both PTV Sports and A-Sports or stream it through the PTVFLIX App. | |
| Viewers in Sri Lanka: you can watch this match live on Maharaja TV or stream it on Sirasatv. Lk. | |
| Viewers in Afghanistan: you can watch this match live on Ariana TV. | |
| Viewers in Bangladesh: you can watch it on Gazi TV or stream it through Rabbithole. | |
| Viewers in the UK: you can watch this match live on Sky Sports or stream it via the Sky Go App. | |
| Viewers in Australia: you can watch this match live on Fox Sports or stream it via the Foxtel or Kayo Sports app. | |
| Viewers in South Africa: you can watch this match on SuperSport channels or stream it via the SuperSport app. | |
| Viewers in the USA and Canada: you can watch this match live on Willow TV, whilst viewers from the USA can also stream it via the ESPN+ app. |
KEY BETTING STATS
- India have won 13 of their last 14 official ODIs, three of those wins being against Australia – To Win the Match.
- Shreyas Iyer has scored 392 runs across India’s last four 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup matches – Team – Top Batter.
- Josh Hazlewood has taken 2+ wickets in four of Australia’s last five 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup matches – Bowler Milestones.
BETTING ANALYSIS For INDIA
For the first time since 2011, India is set to compete in the ICC Cricket World Cup final, and as was the case back then, it will take place on home soil. They reached the final courtesy of a 100% record across the tournament, winning nine out of nine group matches, before overcoming New Zealand by 70 runs in the semi-finals. Expect an unchanged Indian team from the one that defeated the Black Caps in Mumbai due to vice-captain Hardik Pandya’s injury suffered during the group stage.
While most eyes from a batting point of view will understandably be on Virat Kohli, who heads to Ahmedabad as the competition’s top run-scorer, his top-order teammate Shreyas Iyer is in sensational form himself. Coming off the back of consecutive centuries, Iyer’s last four innings have seen him record scores of 105, 128 not out, 77, and 82. With that in mind, the 28-year-old warrants backing to put up a fourth successive score of 50+ runs (3.00) at very good value, and those bettors willing to risk an extra stake for what could be an extremely lucrative return should also consider backing Iyer to accrue another score of 100+ runs (9.00), also via the ‘Batter Milestones’ market.
We’re running out of superlatives to describe the brilliance of Virat Kohli. Utterly nerveless under the heaviest of pressure, his record-breaking 50th ODI century in India’s semi-final win over New Zealand increased Kohli’s overall tally over the course of this World Cup to 711 runs, 117 higher than his nearest competitor. The only player across the tournament who boasts a three-figure average (101.57), investment in Kohli to finish as India’s top batter (3.50) across the final has to be favored.
Not only does India boast the 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup top run-scorer as it stands, but they can also call upon the competition’s highest wicket-taker following the semi-finals. Having picked up career-best bowling figures of 7/57 on Wednesday, also the best figures by an Indian in ODI cricket, Mohammed Shami has now racked up 23 tournament wickets in just six appearances, including two five-wicket-hauls to go alongside that 7/57. A sensible bet would be backing Shami to take over 1.5 wickets (1.80) for the sixth time in India’s last seven games, but those searching for a higher profit margin can back Shami to finish as India’s top bowler (3.50) against Australia.
BETTING ANALYSIS For AUSTRALIA
Five-time world champions Australia secured their place in the 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup final via a three-wicket victory over South Africa, the third time they have advanced to the final over the Proteas across this competition’s history. They now have the chance to break their own record and lift the trophy for a sixth time against the nation whom Australia defeated in the final back in 2003. Like India, Australia should retain the same team that played in the semi-finals, which means the likes of Alex Carey, Cameron Green, and Marcus Stoinis are all set to be disappointed
A number of Australia’s bowlers offer value for bettors via multiple markets, Adam Zampa being one player in particular. Zampa’s leg spin has seen him acquire over 1.5 wickets in seven of his last nine matches, and when considering how important his ability to spin the ball both ways is likely to be in Ahmedabad, backing him to achieve that feat again here (2.00) via the ‘Bowler Total Match Wickets’ market looks a smart play. Over the course of the tournament, Zampa has gained 22 wickets overall, just one less than Mohammed Shami, which underlines the value in backing Zampa to end this final against India as Australia’s top bowler (4.33).
But while Zampa offers a significant wicket-taking threat via the spin department, the consistency of Josh Hazlewood also hugely appeals. The right-arm pacer has consistently delivered for his country in recent weeks and is expected to take the new ball alongside Mitchell Starc when Australia comes to bowl in the match, for what would be the fifth time in his last six games, back Hazlewood to gain 2+ wickets (2.00) via the ‘Bowler Milestones’ market.
Openers Travis Head and David Warner clearly targeted the ‘powerplay’ in their side’s successful semi-final run chase against South Africa on a tricky pitch, taking advantage of the hard new ball and striking six maximums between them (Head two and Warner four), with five of those sixes coming in an opening partnership of 60. Expect both to deploy a similar play-style on this occasion, regardless of whether they are setting or chasing a target, and with that in mind, bettors would be shrewd to back both Head (1.83) and Warner (2.10) to hit over 0.5 sixes this time around.
CRICKET 8’S EXPERT PREDICTION
India are one win away from what they feel is their destiny, to lift the ICC Cricket World Cup once again in their home country and for a third time in their history. Australia, though, is notorious for its incredible ability to achieve victory when it gets to this stage of the tournament. In six ICC Cricket World Cup final appearances since 1987, Australia has lost just once (against Sri Lanka in 1996). It’s worth noting, though, that of Australia’s five World Cup triumphs, only one was achieved in the sub-continent. Pat Cummins’ side has already lost once to India over the course of this competition by six wickets in the group stage and knows the size of the challenge that lies ahead.
India has played ten and won ten of their World Cup fixtures heading into the final, while Australia is coming off the back of an eight-match winning streak. Both nations were also victorious in their one previous World Cup fixture to have taken place at Narendra Modi Stadium, India against Pakistan and Australia vs England. Expect an extremely close contest between two excellent teams, who each have all bases covered in terms of their respective XIs.
However, it’s hard to look beyond Virat Kohli, ultimately turning out to be the difference maker in this historic final. The highest run-scorer in the tournament, Kohli has passed 50 in six of his last seven innings, going on to reach three figures in half of those. There is no better player in the world at controlling and timing 50-over innings, balancing control with aggression at just the right time, whether India is setting a total or chasing one. Kohli already boasts 85 runs against Australia in the group stage, and under the most intense of pressure here, expect India’s best batter to step up again for his country and record another substantial individual score.
TIP
VIRAT KOHLI TO SCORE A FIFTY IN THE MATCH (2.10)
