Throughout the 2024 edition of the Tata IPL, Cricket8 will be running a brand-new Dream 11 fantasy model for each match, aiming to give readers the best chance of Dream 11 success throughout the season! This will be done by calculating each player’s average expected points in the match (Avg xP) and constructing the best XI given the rules and regulations of Dream 11. First up, we look at the titanic opening match between 5-time winners Chennai Super Kings and perennial bridesmaids Royal Challengers Bengaluru. A clash that will see the two biggest superstars of Indian cricket in the last 10 years face off against each other, MS Dhoni and Virat Kohli.
Match Details
| Date | Friday 22nd March 14:30 GMT, 20:00 IST |
| Venue | MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai |
| Weather | Small chance (10%) of showers in the day, which should clear by the evening. A very warm and humid evening expected, with temperatures of around 29c. |
| C8’s Match Predictor | Chennai: 59%, Bengaluru 41% |
| C8’s Par Score Predictor | 169 |
| Seam/Spin Differential | Heavily favourable for spin bowling |
Cricket8’s Fantasy XI
Interestingly, despite our match predictor suggesting that Chennai should be significant favourites to win the match, our team is made up of 6 RCB and 5 CSK players. This indicates that RCB perhaps have more star players but are carrying some weak links, whereas CSK have a more complete and well-rounded starting XI. Given the surface is likely to favour spin, it is not surprising to see 3 spin options in the XI.
Captaincy and Vice Captaincy
Glenn Maxwell (captain)
Unsurprisingly Maxwell has our models highest expected points tally with 57. Likely to be batting at 3 or 4 in the RCB line up, he will have plenty of time to maximise his potential points scoring with the bat. Since moving from Punjab to RCB in 2021, Maxwell’s IPL batting numbers have improved significantly, he has averaged nearly 35 at an astonishing strike rate of 161 over this 3-year period. His recent form is also excellent, scoring an unbeaten 120 against the West Indies in Adelaide last month.
Another factor in Maxwell’s high xP value is his fantastic record against spin bowling, which he is likely to face in abundance at Chepauk. There are very few batters in the world that can match his boundary % against spin (of the top players, only Shivam Dube scored a greater % of his runs against spin in sixes during IPL 2023), so at a ground where the average player historically struggles to clear the boundary, he should be able to access bonus points that others cannot.
As an off spinner himself, Maxwell will also get to benefit from the conditions with the ball. In Ravindra, Dube, Moeen Ali and Jadeja, Chennai are well stocked with left-handed batters, and therefore the RCB man should get to bowl close to his full quota of deliveries.
Ravindra Jadeja (vice-captain)
Likely to bowl 4 overs on a surface that favours spin bowling, and more than capable of adding a good amount of runs in the middle of the order, Ravi Jadeja will be our vice-captain for this match.
What has boosted his expected points further than just conditions, is the likely make up of RCB’s top 5. In du Plessis, Kohli, Maxwell, Patidar and Green, RCB boast a top 5 entirely made up of right handers. It may be that RCB decide to promote Lomror or Rawat, should either of them be selected, in order to combat this. Although given the significant difference in quality between those two and the top 5, this feels far from certain.
Depending on team selection and match ups, it’s not impossible to imagine Jadeja batting as high as 5, which will give him plenty of opportunity to score runs. As one of the best fielders he the world, he clearly brings value in that regard as well.
Wicket Keeper Selection
Wicket keeping options Dinesh Karthik and MS Dhoni are both in the twilight years of their career and it’s probably fair to say that their best batting days are behind them. Whilst MS remains a world class option with the gloves, he is likely to bat only when absolutely necessary in this tournament, possibly being carded at 8 or below. Dinesh Karthik should slot in at 6 or 7 for RCB, giving him a greater chance of contributing with the bat, and that gives him the edge here.
Potential Differentials
At the time of writing Shivam Dube has been selected by only 42% of managers, perhaps slightly concerned by his recent fitness issues that caused him to miss the latter part of the Ranji Trophy. If he is fit the take the field, Dube could be an excellent point of difference in our side. He was arguably CSK’s best batter last season, scoring 418 runs at a strike rate of nearly 160, one of the highlights of which was a stunning 25 ball 50 against this fixtures opposition RCB.
Deepak Chahar has also only been selected by 39% of managers for this match. The seamer is very likely to bowl his overs in the powerplay and at the death, phases where the opportunities for wickets are higher. Chahar is especially lethal in the powerplay, taking 53 wickets in this phase since 2015. This is the highest of any bowler in the IPL, 4 clear of Trent Boult in second place. Given the humid conditions in Chennai on Friday night, he will likely find some swing early on.
Standby Options
In the event that one or more of our picks for this match are not selected, the next 3 highest rated players by the Cricket8 fantasy model are as below:
- Rajat Patidar (36 points)
- Daryl Mitchell (36 points)
- Moeen Ali (35 points)
Total Avg xP – 591 points
